In the year to date, trade has increased the Swiss francs more than 5%, 3% against the dollar and 15% against the euro on the basis of weighted. It recently touched an all-time low against the euro and is closing in on parity with USD. Since beginning of summer, the Swiss franc by collected incredible 15% against the greenback. I don't think I'm alone in scratch head in confusion wondering, what could be behind the franc's rise perhaps?
From this point everyone is familiar with the phenomenon of safe haven. Inspired by investors, capital in locales and investment vehicles, the less risky perceived be to relocate and basically concerns a double-dip recession have ignited a flare in risk aversion. Switzerland and by extension the Swiss franc have both benefited from this phenomenon: "Anxious investors seeking an oasis of fears about the health of banks in Europe, knocked the shares and peripheral euro area Government bond spreads later sent, dumped the single currency.""The Swiss franc benefits."Enough said.
At the same time the dollar and Japanese Yen safe haven currencies also apply, and as you can see from the chart below, hardly control.with traded the three at the same rate as other words, it must be to distinguish something the franc. Economists point to a strong economy: "gross domestic product by 0.9% compared to the first quarter when it increased by 1%. '" The underlying economy of Switzerland are very, very healthy. Concerns about deflation have subsided. ' "The consensus is that economy of close to 2% on the year will expand the Swiss."However, this is hardly impressive when compared with other industrialised countries. Moreover, Swiss remain low interest rates, which means that the opportunity cost of holding the franc is high. There must be something else happens.
In fact, it looks like the Swiss franc's rise is kind of self-fulfilling. For the most 2009 the Swiss National Bank (SNB) artificially pushed spent nearly $ 200 billion to the value of the Swiss franc. During this period of the Swiss franc against the euro remained stable and depreciated against the dollar and yen. Have finally broken "Line in the sand" of € 1.50, but is now quickly appreciate the franc. Why?Because the National Bank lost no longer any credibility hat.Es $ 15 billion (due to the euro depreciation) tries to defend the Franks, and afterwards the mission was a complete waste of time. As a result, is a new round of the assistance in question. The currency markets can also, new intervention released, and it seems, are to punish the SNB (via the Swiss francs) for even trying.
According to analysts, the markets have also come to see both the Swiss franc as a reincarnation of the Deutsche mark, due to his "strong economy, massive foreign reserve assets, traditional haven status and strong ties with the German economy."Those that fear of a eurozone would reduce and/or make exclusive bets on Germany are now as a proxy to use the Swiss franc.I personally do not understand the logic behind this strategy, but perception is reality, it's important to understand that other investors see the link, instead of seeing the connection for yourself.
In the future it is mixed the mood around the franc.An analyst warned clients, "I'd sein.Es afterwards to race too far in the short term care are a multitude of opposition out there."According to another analyst, "we expect that the Swiss francs remain strong in the Decade."Personally, I'm inclined to that page is a fundamental point of view with the former Gesichtspunkt.Von no lot move the Swiss franc to keep and his recent surge on fumes likely run expect wird.Am the very least I a correction in the near future.
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